Tor des Géants: leg 5

The fifth base vita of the Tor is in Valtournenche. Runners have covered there 39 km with 2601 D+ since leaving Gressoney. And we have intermediate times in Crest and Saint Jacques.
Let’s see what we can learn from this fifth stage. What are the fastest times this far?

Fastest Times

Fastest times in Crest:

Karrera Iker 41:59 (2013)
Colle Franco 43:59 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 44:16 (2013)

Fastest times in Saint Jacques:

Karrera Iker 43:27 (2013)
Colle Franco 45:10 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 45:51 (2013)

Fastest times in Valtournenche:

Karrera Iker 47:10 (2013)
Colle Franco 48:06 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 49:24 (2013)

Each time it are simply the front runners of 2013.

Fastest times between Gressoney and Valtournenche:

[Gazzola Marco 6:58 (2011)]
Calvo Redondo Salvador 7:13 (2013)
Hamelinck Wouter 7:39 (2010)
Brunod Bruno 7:42 (2013)
[Zanchi Marco 7:49 (2012)]
Canepa Francesca 7:50 (2013)

Some new names. From here on well rested runners go faster than the race leaders. You will see me a few times.

Fastest times between Gressoney and Crest:

[Gazzola Marco 2:58 (2011)]
Brunod Bruno 3:05 (2013)
Canepa Francesca 3:06 (2013)
Hamelinck Wouter 3:09 (2010)
Calvo Redondo Salvador 3:09 (2013)

Fastest times between Crest and Saint Jacques:

[Mochizuki Shogo 0:35 (2013)]
Le Saux Christophe 0:55 (2011)
Le Saux Christophe 1:00 (2012)
[Gazzola Marco 1:03 (2011)]
Calvo Redondo Salvador 1:03 (2013)
Canepa Francesca 1:04 (2012)

Fastest times between Saint Jacques and Valtournenche:

Desez Alain 2:01 (2012)
Perez Oscar 2:48 (2013)
Colle Franco 2:56 (2013)
[Gazzola Marco 2:57 (2011)]
[Zanchi Marco 3:01 (2012)]
Calvo Redondo Salvador 3:01 (2013)

That first value looks suspicious. I think that includes a wrong timing.

Crest

We clearly see that the band starts narrowing down. From here on it is possible to make good predictions about the finish time.

Once you got this far, you normally will get to the end.

Saint Jacques

Valtournenche

Predictions

Some plots to help you predict how long it will take to get to the next aid station with timing.



I am sure that you can deduce a reasonable estimate from that.

Time in Valtournenche

To finish the discussion of leg 1, some more records. This time of the people that stayed in Valtournenche for the longest time and still finished.

Hamelinck Wouter 16:09 (2010)
[Martin Jean Nicolas 15:07 (2013)]
Copeta Alex 12:46 (2012)
Etienne Fabrice 12:41 (2010)

This is the longest time that anyone stayed in any aid station and still managed to get to the finish line. It took me the better part of a book to stay for such a long time.

And to finish a plot to predict how long a runner will stay in the base vita depending on the time he arrived.

Here we see some strange patterns in the 2012 runners. That is the edition that was stopped due to bad weather a bit later. I assume it has to do with runners being forced to stay in the base vita during a storm.