Hardrock: how lucky do we really need to be?

So, now that the (or rather “a”) distribution of the number of tickets is available, we can try to find out what our chances are of getting in instead of guestimating with some handwaving. I will work based on the pdf list as it was presented on the hardrock website. The real authority is Blake Wood, who also did his simulations, but based on a more recent list (which I don’t have). Mainly what I put here is just a confirmation of his results. I assume that all the time people are claiming mistakes in the list, so it might still change a few times before the lottery actually takes place. But those changes will not change the big picture.
I used a MC simulation with 1000000 draws. Between brackets, I will put the results of Blake.

Veterans

I work based on 9 with 5 tickets, 10 with 6 tickets, 4 with 7 tickets, 4 with 8 tickets, 3 with 9 tickets, 4 with 10 tickets, 1 with 12 tickets, 2 with 13 tickets, 1 with 14 tickets, 3 with 18 tickets, 1 with 20 tickets and 1 with 23 tickets. That last guy is Blake Wood himself. Of those Darcy Piceu (6 tickets) is automatically selected. The rest is competing for 34 spots. Blake has an extra runner with 7 tickets that “seemed to have been lost through a computer glitch” and that he “tentatively included for the time being”. This means that my chances should be somewhat higher than his.
5 tickets 67.1% (64.8%)
6 tickets 73.7% (71.4%)
7 tickets 79.0% (76.8%)
8 tickets 83.1% (81.2%)
9 tickets 86.4% (84.7%)
10 tickets 89.1% (87.5%)
12 tickets 92.8% (91.6%)
13 tickets 94.2% (93.1%)
14 tickets 95.3% (94.4%)
18 tickets 97.9% (97.4%)
20 tickets 98.6% (98.2%)
23 tickets 99.2% (99.0%)

Never started

Here, we have the huge numbers of runners. I worked based on 499 with 1 ticket, 343 with 2 tickets, 146 with 4 tickets, 104 with 8 tickets, 40 with 16 tickets, 7 with 32 tickets, 4 with 64 tickets and 3 with 128 tickets. Those 1146 runners have in total 4105 tickets in the hat and are competing for 47 spots. Note that you can fill all those spots with people that are at the fifth or more attempt. Blake’s list deviates a little (he removed 10 runners with 1, 1 runner with 2, 2 runners with 4 and 1 runner with 8 tickets and added one runner with 16 tickets). The influence of that should be minimal.
This are the chances of getting in
1 ticket 1.3% (1.3%)
2 tickets 2.5% (2.5%)
4 tickets 5.0% (5.0%)
8 tickets 9.8% (9.8%)
16 tickets 18.6% (18.7%)
32 tickets 33.8% (33.9%)
64 tickets 56.2% (56.3%)
128 tickets 80.7% (80.8%)

I saw that the Belgians and Dutch in this group all have 1 ticket. The chance that at least one of them gets in is about 11%. But having only 1 ticket isn’t exactly showing a lot of dedication.

Everyone else

This is the most important group. Mainly because that is where I am. In the list I used there are 4 with 1 ticket, 34 with 2 tickets, 60 with 3 tickets, 51 with 4 tickets, 18 with 5 tickets, 11 with 6 tickets and 1 with 9 tickets. Not included in the lottery is Kilian Jornet (4 tickets) who is an automatic entry. The remaining 178 runners are competing for 69 spots. Blake kicked out someone with 2 and someone with 3 tickets. This means that the chances that I obtain should be slightly lower than his.
1 ticket 13.6% (13.7%)
2 tickets 25.3% (25.6%)
3 tickets 35.4% (35.8%)
4 tickets 44.2% (44.6%)
5 tickets 51.8% (52.2%)
6 tickets 58.4% (58.8%)
9 tickets 73.1% (73.5%)

I have three tickets, so 35% is what I get. Fingers crossed.

My results are very good in line with the “Blake Standard”, so my methodology appears to be rather sound. And remember: if you would like to run Hardrock, patience is a virtue.

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One Response to Hardrock: how lucky do we really need to be?

  1. Spijtig genoeg ben je niet ver in de wedstrijd geraakt, nu je er eindelijk aan kon deelnemen! Weer de achillespees? Veel succes nog met de komende uitdagingen! Ik kijk alvast uit naar de volgende nieuwsbrief!

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