Nieuwsbrief oktober 2014

In oktober nam ik nog eens een voor mij atypisch wedstrijdje mee. Samen met een paar ploegen van het werk liep ik mee tijdens de Ekiden in Brussel. Tijdens de weken voor de wedstrijd geraakte ik op training hoegenaamd niet vooruit. Het is dan ook niet te verwonderen dat ook tijdens de wedstrijd het op totaal niks trok bij mij. Over mijn stuk van tien kilometer deed ik net iets meer dan veertig minuten. Voor mij is dat bar slecht. Gelukkig beginnen mijn trainingstijden sindsdien terug de goede richting uit te gaan. Over het globale resultaat van onze ploegen kan ik dan wel weer tevreden zijn. We stonden er met drie ploegen van elk zes man wat voor een bedrijf met een dikke honderd werknemers een erg mooi aantal is.

Gelukkig was er ook nog een uitstapje waarover ik wat kan vertellen. Dat ging richting Italië en dan meer bepaald naar Lecco. Lecco is een schitterend gelegen stadje. Aan de ene kant ligt het tegen het Comomeer en aan de andere kant rijzen er steile bergen op. Het is dan ook nog eens gemakkelijk en voor een appel en een ei te bereiken. Ik begon met een pad aan de noordkant van de stad. Dat begint breed met een paar ruime zigzagbochten, maar al snel is het recht omhoog de helling op en moet je op handen en voeten klauteren over de rotsen. Dergelijke paden kunnen ze alleen in Italië verzinnen.
De hele tijd koos ik voor de weg omhoog tot ik op de top van een berg stond. Daar stond ik in de dichte mist en viel dus niks te zien. Ik probeerde een tijdje een pad te volgen dat van top naar top liep. Het probleem met de toppen daar is dat het van die loodrechte rotswanden zijn waar een simpele loper als ik niet op of af geraakt. Het pad was dan ook nog eens amper te vinden. Gelukkig waren een hier een daar wat kettingen aan de wanden bevestigd. Aan de ene kant maken die erg duidelijk hoe het pad loopt en langs de andere kant zou ik op sommige plaatsen nooit naar beneden geraakt zijn zonder.
Na een paar van de toppen koos ik toch voor een doorsteek doorheen het bos naar het hoofdpad dat een beetje lager rond de toppen gaat.
Dan ging het de vallei in en vatte ik de beklimming van de Grigne Meridionale aan. Er zijn een heel pak routes om naar te top te komen. Eentje daarvan is een doodgewone simpele wandelroute, de rest gaat richting alpinisme of bevat zelfs pure klimstukjes. Ik koos zo eentje dat wat vaag op alpinisme begint te lijken. In essentie volgt het gewoon een afwateringsgeul die recht omhoog loopt. Je moet gewoon van de ene rotsblok op de volgende klauteren en het komt wel in orde. Veel verloren lopen kan je er niet doen. Tegen de avond stond ik toch helemaal boven. De wolken die me een groot deel van de dag in de mist hielden bleken tot op ongeveer 1500 meter hoogte te hangen. Als de top boven de tweeduizend meter hoog is wil dat zeggen dat je kan rondkijken over die wolken waar hier en daar een topje uitsteekt.
Ik begon nog aan de Traversa Alta richting Grigne Settentrionale. Ergens halverwege stopte ik om mijn slaapzak uit te rollen. Ik vond een schitterend plaatsje op een strook van een meter breed met aan de ene kant van mij struikjes en aan de andere kant een afgrond. Vanuit mijn slaapzak had ik een schitterend uitzicht hoe bij het licht van de ondergaande zon de wolken onder mij omheen de rotspijlers kolkten.
In de ochtend liep ik verder naar de Grigne Settentrionale. In het begin kwamen daar nog wat klauterstukjes bij kijken maar zeker niets dat te vergelijken viel met de acrobatie van de dag tevoren. Zeker eens je op het pad komende van Pasturo komt is het een doodgewoon wandelpad. Op de top had ik een schitterend uitzicht over de wolken. Je kan er helemaal rondkijken naar de Gran Paradiso, Matterhorn, Jungfrau, Bernina…
Daarna volgde ik nog een tijdje de kom tot ik terug onder de wolken moest dalen. Ik had geen zin om mijn schitterende uitzicht kwijt te geraken, dus bleef ik wat op hoogte hangen. Uiteindelijk moest ik er natuurlijk toch voor zorgen dat ik mijn vliegtuig niet zou missen. Ik liep dan maar omlaag de wolken in om in Mandello op de trein te stappen.

Posted in Nieuwsbrief | Leave a comment

Nieuwsbrief september 2014

Vorige maand trok ik er een eerste keer op uit naar Zwitserland. Meer bepaald ging ik naar Saas-Grund. Daar zou ik dan twee dagen in de vallei rondlopen met Siebrig. Op zaterdag liepen we in de richting van de Antronapas. Eerst moet je daarvoor naar het einde van de vallei geraken wat we natuurlijk natuurlijk niet gewoon over de bodem van de vallei deden, maar wel door een goed stuk omhoog te gaan en dan af te dalen naar Saas-Almagell. Dan gingen we omhoog naar Heitbodme Dat is nog niet zo mooi omdat je er tussen de skiliften loopt. Maar van Heitbodme is er dan een pad dat over de flank van de vallei naar de pas loopt. Op de kaart zag het er redelijk vlak uit, maar in de praktijk valt zoiets natuurlijk vrij hard tegen. Dat neemt niet weg dat het een prachtige vallei is. Het is zo een totaal verlaten vallei met een pad op de bodem en eentje op de flank waar je bijna niets tegen komt. Een stralend blauwe lucht maakte het alleen maar mooier.
Eens je op de pas staat kijk je dan plots Italië binnen. We kwamen er een herder tegen die op zoek was naar een honderdtal schapen. Die hoorden daar ergens rond te lopen, maar dat deden ze dus niet. Wij hadden ze in elk geval niet gezien. Hoogst waarschijnlijk heeft iemand ze Italië binnen gesmokkeld waar ze in de salami terecht zijn gekomen.
Van de Antronapass staken we door naar Jazzilücke over een leuk technisch pad. Vandaar daalden we door opnieuw een prachtige totaal verlaten vallei naar de Mattmark Stausee. Dan blijft er nog gewoon een stuk door de vallei over om terug in Saas-Grund te komen. Deze keer bleven we braafjes op de bodem en gingen geen extra hoogtemeters meer zoeken.
Op zondag moesten we ons tot iets korters beperken omdat ik nog een vliegtuig naar huis moest halen. We liepen naar de Mischabelhut. Deze ligt pal boven Saas op 3340 meter hoogte. Dat betekent eventjes recht omhoog en recht omlaag knallen. Eerst liepen we via de Kapellenweg naar Saas-Fee. Voorbij Saas-Fee gaat het pad dan via een eindeloze reeks haarspeldbochtjes de wand op. Het laatste stuk naar de hut gaat over een met blauwe streepjes gemarkeerde alpiene wandelweg die mooi over een graat loopt. Er zitten om het leven gemakkelijk te maken een heel pak vaste kabels, haken en zelfs een ladder in. Wij maakten er natuurlijk een sport van om die allemaal niet te gebruiken en ook naast de ladder omhoog te klimmen. Vanaf de hut heb je waarschijnlijk een mooi uitzicht. Toen wij er waren dreven overal wat wolkenflarden rond waartussen we de stukken panorama een beetje moesten samen puzzelen.
De afdaling was misschien nog wel het leukste stuk. Ik geef toe dat we hier wel de artificiële hulpmiddelen gebruikt hebben. Je kon er fantastisch van rots naar rots springend omlaag vliegen. Het onderste stuk kom je dan terug op die haarspelbochten terecht. Een beetje verder naar het zuiden zou je gewoon loodrecht omlaag gaan, maar bij die gedisciplineerde Zwitsers volgt iedereen braafjes de haarspelbochten. Ik dus ook. Dat maakt de afdaling nog vrij traag. Om meer te doen had ik die dag geen tijd. Ik had nog een trein en vliegtuig te halen.

Vorige week vloog ik dan nog eens naar Zweden. Ik vloog op Skavsta (bij Nyköping). Mijn plan was deze keer om de bus te nemen tot Norrköping en dan gewoon terug te lopen naar de luchthaven. Om van Norrköping weg te geraken had ik wat verharde stukken nodig, maar eens ik goed en wel van de stad weg was, de velden achter mij liet en het bos in liep kon ik honderden kilometers ronddwalen zonder verharde ondergrond tegen te komen. Als ik daar de tijd voor zou hebben. Ik liep vrij recht naar het noorden tot ik op het Östergotlandsled terecht kwam. Gewoon de markeringen kunnen volgen maakt het leven toch een heel stuk eenvoudiger. Zeker als je hier en daar over een vrij klein pad gaat. Die echt kleine paden zijn op de kaart niet zo heel betrouwbaar.
Na een paar tiental kilometer Östergotlandsled sloot dit aan op het intussen mij welbekende Sörmlandsled. Beide paden zijn erg gelijkaardig en vormen in praktijk een groot samenhangend geheel. Beiden zijn gelijkaardig gemarkeerd en zien er ook gelijkaardig uit. Ze voeren je de hele tijd om de ontelbare heuveltjes die dit gebied rijk is. Onderweg passeer je hele hopen meertjes in alle mogelijk groottes, vormen en formaten. Ik had nog een veel geluk met het weer. Het hele weekend was er een stralend weertje. Ik had niet eens de moeite genomen om een tent of bivakzak mee te sleuren, maar koos gewoon voor in de slaapzak in de open lucht slapen. Dat is de manier waarop ik het liefste rondtrek. Het geeft de grootste vrijheid. Uiteindelijk bleek mijn timing zelfs redelijk ruim en had ik een paar uur overschot alvorens mijn vlucht terug vertrok. Het enige nadeel met helemaal naar de luchthaven teruglopen is dat je om daar te geraken toch nog een paar kilometer asfalt moet lopen. Er zijn niet bijster veel luchthavens waar een bospad tot aan de terminal loopt neem ik aan.

Posted in Nieuwsbrief | Leave a comment

Tor des Géants: leg 7

The finish of the Tor is in Courmayeur, back where it all started. Runners have covered there 48 km with 2880 D+ since leaving Ollomont and 330km with 24000 D+ since leaving Courmayeur. And we have intermediate times in Saint Rhemy and Bonatti.
Let’s see what we can learn from this first stage. What are the fastest times this far?

Fastest Times

Fastest times in Saint Rhemy:

Karrera Iker 64:20 (2013)
Perez Oscar 65:08 (2013)
Colle Franco 65:46 (2013)

Fastest times in Bonatti:

Karrera Iker 68:22 (2013)
Perez Oscar 68:56 (2013)
Colle Franco 70:21 (2013)

Fastest times in Courmayeur:

Karrera Iker 70:04 (2013)
Perez Oscar 70:29 (2013)
Colle Franco 72:05 (2013)

Fastest times between Ollomont and Courmayeur:

Hamelinck Wouter 8:40 (2010)
Jouneau Pierre Henri 9:07 (2010)
Gazzola Marco 9:12 (2011)
Pelmont Francis 9:18 (2012)

Fastest times between Ollomont and Saint Rhemy:

Hamelinck Wouter 3:23 (2010)
Pelmont Francis 3:36 (2012)
Mongiovetto Mikael 3:46 (2013)

Fastest times between Saint Rhemy and Bonatti:

Hamelinck Wouter 3:05 (2010)
Pica Massimo 3:33 (2013)
Jouneau Pierre Henri 3:35 (2012)

I was absolutely flying in this part.

Fastest times between Bonatti and Courmayeur:

Gazzola Marco 0:52 (2011)
Saroglia Mauro 1:24 (2012)
Jouneau Pierre Henri 1:32 (2010)
Perez Oscar 1:33 (2013)
Jouneau Pierre Henri 1:35 (2012)
Gonzalez Fernando 1:35 (2012)

Blame it on Isa that I am not in this list. And there is someone that likes hammering that downhill.

Saint Rhemy



Bonatti



Only two people did not become finishers after passing Bonatti (Marco Gazzola and Stéphane Couleaud).

The strange shape in 2012 is because the race was stopped in Saint-Rhemy due to bad weather after the first runners passed.

Courmayeur

Predictions

Some plots to help you predict how long it will take to get to the next aid station with timing.



I am sure that you can deduce a reasonable estimate from that.

Posted in Lopen, Ultra | Leave a comment

Tor des Géants: leg 6

The sixth and last base vita of the Tor is in Ollomont. Runners have covered there 44 km with 2702 D+ since leaving Valtournenche. And we have intermediate times in Cuney and Oyace.
Let’s see what we can learn from this first stage. What are the fastest times this far?

Fastest Times

Fastest times in Cuney:

Karrera Iker 52:37 (2013)
Colle Franco 54:22 (2013)
Perez Oscar 54:55 (2013)

Fastest times in Oyace:

Karrera Iker 55:34 (2013)
Colle Franco 57:20 (2013)
Perez Oscar 57:40 (2013)

Fastest times in Ollomont:

Karrera Iker 59:15 (2013)
Perez Oscar 60:41 (2013)
Colle Franco 60:46 (2013)

Again, it are just the front runners of 2013. No surprises.

It gets more interesting for the time needed for the different parts. We start to see other names.
Fastest times between Valtournenche and Ollomont:

Hamelinck Wouter 9:52 (2010)
Saroglia Mauro 10:27 (2012)
Perez Oscar 10:41 (2013)

Fastest times between Valtournenche and Cuney:

Mangaretto Marco 4:38 (2012)
Saroglia Mauro 4:43 (2012)
Jaile Casa Joel 4:43 (2012)
Camandona Marco 4:43 (2012)

Fastest times between Cuney and Oyace:

Leroux Pascal 0:36 (2010)
Bonanni Yann 2:35 (2012)
Rossell Fa Carles 2:42 (2012)
Gross Annemarie 2:43 (2010)

Fastest times between Valtournenche and Oyace

Hamelinck Wouter 6:58 (2010)
Mangaretto Marco 7:34 (2012)
Saroglia Mauro 7:38 (2012)

I admit that I only added this one because my own time in Crest is lacking for some reason and I knew that I was really fast after staying 16 hours in Valtournenche.

Fastest times between Oyace and Ollomont:

Saroglia Mauro 2:49 2012
Calvo Redondo Salvador 2:51 2010
Hamelinck Wouter 2:54 2010

I obviously spent too much time in Oyace.

Cuney



Oyace


From now on you can make rather good predictions for the finish time.

Most runners that get this far, finish as well.

Amazing how the shapes are different in different year. The weather might be a good explanation for a big part of that variation.

Ollomont



Predictions

Some plots to help you predict how long it will take to get to the next aid station with timing.



I am sure that you can deduce a reasonable estimate from that.

Time in Ollomont

To finish the discussion of leg 6, some more records. This time of the people that stayed in Ollomont for the longest time and still finished.

Hamelinck Wouter 14:24 (2010)
Bernard Marc 11:31 (2012)
Schiavon Mauro 11:07 (2013)

Well, well, the best attempt to break my record comes from Marcassou. Who would have thought?

And to finish a plot to predict how long a runner will stay in the base vita depending on the time he arrived.

Posted in Lopen, Ultra | Leave a comment

Tor des Géants: leg 5

The fifth base vita of the Tor is in Valtournenche. Runners have covered there 39 km with 2601 D+ since leaving Gressoney. And we have intermediate times in Crest and Saint Jacques.
Let’s see what we can learn from this fifth stage. What are the fastest times this far?

Fastest Times

Fastest times in Crest:

Karrera Iker 41:59 (2013)
Colle Franco 43:59 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 44:16 (2013)

Fastest times in Saint Jacques:

Karrera Iker 43:27 (2013)
Colle Franco 45:10 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 45:51 (2013)

Fastest times in Valtournenche:

Karrera Iker 47:10 (2013)
Colle Franco 48:06 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 49:24 (2013)

Each time it are simply the front runners of 2013.

Fastest times between Gressoney and Valtournenche:

[Gazzola Marco 6:58 (2011)]
Calvo Redondo Salvador 7:13 (2013)
Hamelinck Wouter 7:39 (2010)
Brunod Bruno 7:42 (2013)
[Zanchi Marco 7:49 (2012)]
Canepa Francesca 7:50 (2013)

Some new names. From here on well rested runners go faster than the race leaders. You will see me a few times.

Fastest times between Gressoney and Crest:

[Gazzola Marco 2:58 (2011)]
Brunod Bruno 3:05 (2013)
Canepa Francesca 3:06 (2013)
Hamelinck Wouter 3:09 (2010)
Calvo Redondo Salvador 3:09 (2013)

Fastest times between Crest and Saint Jacques:

[Mochizuki Shogo 0:35 (2013)]
Le Saux Christophe 0:55 (2011)
Le Saux Christophe 1:00 (2012)
[Gazzola Marco 1:03 (2011)]
Calvo Redondo Salvador 1:03 (2013)
Canepa Francesca 1:04 (2012)

Fastest times between Saint Jacques and Valtournenche:

Desez Alain 2:01 (2012)
Perez Oscar 2:48 (2013)
Colle Franco 2:56 (2013)
[Gazzola Marco 2:57 (2011)]
[Zanchi Marco 3:01 (2012)]
Calvo Redondo Salvador 3:01 (2013)

That first value looks suspicious. I think that includes a wrong timing.

Crest


We clearly see that the band starts narrowing down. From here on it is possible to make good predictions about the finish time.

Once you got this far, you normally will get to the end.

Saint Jacques



Valtournenche



Predictions

Some plots to help you predict how long it will take to get to the next aid station with timing.



I am sure that you can deduce a reasonable estimate from that.

Time in Valtournenche

To finish the discussion of leg 1, some more records. This time of the people that stayed in Valtournenche for the longest time and still finished.

Hamelinck Wouter 16:09 (2010)
[Martin Jean Nicolas 15:07 (2013)]
Copeta Alex 12:46 (2012)
Etienne Fabrice 12:41 (2010)

This is the longest time that anyone stayed in any aid station and still managed to get to the finish line. It took me the better part of a book to stay for such a long time.

And to finish a plot to predict how long a runner will stay in the base vita depending on the time he arrived.

Here we see some strange patterns in the 2012 runners. That is the edition that was stopped due to bad weather a bit later. I assume it has to do with runners being forced to stay in the base vita during a storm.

Posted in Lopen, Ultra | 1 Comment

Tor des Géants: leg 4

The fourth base vita of the Tor is in Gressoney. Runners have covered there 53 km with 4107 D+ since leaving Donnas. And we have intermediate times in Sassa and Niel.
Let’s see what we can learn from this first stage. What are the fastest times this far?

Fastest Times

Fastest times in Sassa:

Karrera Iker 27:24 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 28:34 (2013)
Colle Franco 28:41 (2013)

Fastest times in Niel:

Karrera Iker 33:59 (2013)
Colle Franco 35:24 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 35:34 (2013)

Fastest times in Gressoney:

Karrera Iker 37:57 (2013)
Colle Franco 38:38 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 39:48 (2013)

Fastest times between Donnas and Gressoney:

[Fornero Andrea 7:26 (2012)]
Perez Oscar 12:47 (2012)
Hamelinck Wouter 12:55 (2010)
Grange Giuseppe 12:59 (2010)
Colle Franco 13:07 (2013)

Again a probably wrong entry of a DNF that gives an impossible fast time. We see that some of the long sleepers in Donnas run as fast as the front runners.

Fastest times between Donnas and Sassa:

Favre Corinne 2:45 (2010)
Zanchi Marco 2:49 (2013)
Canepa Francesca 2:50 (2013)

Well, that are some surprising names.

Fastest times between Sassa and Niel:

[Pidello Gian Marco 3:56 (2013)]
Karrera Iker 6:35 (2013)
Colle Franco 6:43 (2013)
Perez Oscar 6:59 (2012)

Fastest times between Niel and Gressoney:

[Parisio Patrizio 1:40 2013]
Perez Oscar 2:45 (2012)
Calvo Redondo Salvador 2:48 (2013)
[Vuillen Loris 2:52 (2010)]
Grange Giuseppe 2:53 (2010)
Hamelinck Wouter 2:55 (2010)

Sassa



The ones that pass Sassa in less than 60 hours have a very good chance of finishing.

Some variation in the location of the bulk. It might depend on how long people tend to stay in Donnas.

Niel


We start to see that 72 hours in Niel is more or less the difference between finishing on Friday or finishing on Saturday.

No fixed time limit, but if you pass in less than 80 hours you are golden.

Gressoney


75-76 hours is more or less the distinction between finishes on Friday and finishes on Saturday.

The time limit to get here is 85 hours. It looks like it is not strictly enforced (or was different in the past) and people do manage to get to the finish line past this time. As long as you are under the time limit you can do it from here on.

Predictions

Some plots to help you predict how long it will take to get to the next aid station with timing.



I am sure that you can deduce a reasonable estimate from that.

Time in Gressoney

To finish the discussion of leg 1, some more records. This time of the people that stayed in Gressoney for the longest time and still finished.

Hamelinck Wouter 10:34 (2010)
Pujol Herve 10:28 (2012)
Brunod Michel 10:02 (2012)

There are some good attempt, but nobody managed to break my time from 2010.

And to finish a plot to predict how long a runner will stay in the base vita depending on the time he arrived.

The line you see to the right are runners that stay until the time limit pushes them on.

Posted in Lopen, Ultra | Leave a comment

Tor des Géants: leg 3

The third base vita of the Tor is in Donnas. This is more or less the halfway point. Runners have covered there 44 km with 1383 D+. And we have intermediate times in Chardonney.
Let’s see what we can learn from this first stage. What are the fastest times this far?

Fastest Times

Fastest times in Chardonney:

Karrera Iker 21:50 (2013)
Colle Franco 22:06 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 22:34 (2013)

This are simply the numbers 1, 3 and 4 from 2013.

Fastest times in Donnas:

Karrera Iker 24:23 (2013)
Colle Franco 24:29 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 25:02 (2013)

Fastest times between Cogne and Donnas:

Favre Corinne 6:28 (2010)
Colle Franco 6:36 (2013)
Bohard Patrick 6:47 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 6:49 (2013)

Fastest times between Cogne and Chardonney:

Favre Corinne 2:20 (2010)
Colle Franco 4:13 (2013)
Bohard Patrick 4:15 (2013)
Mangaretto Marco 4:20 (2013)

That time of Corinne is of course impossible. Her timing for leaving Cogne is probably wrong.

Fastest times between Chardonney and Donnas:

Colle Franco 2:23 (2013)
Perez Oscar 2:24 (2012)
Perez Oscar 2:28 (2013)
Trivel Lionel 2:28 (2013)

Simply the front runners. There are no well rested runners from Cogne that kick up the pace to something faster than the front runners.

Chardonney


We start to see a band structure. Still very wide, so predictions can be rather far off. But at least a ballpack finish time becomes possible.

There is no time limit in Chardonney, but you should run below 52 hours to have a fighting chance. This is 2 pm on Tuesday.

Suddenly all the years look similar. So it doesn’t really matter how fast people start in the early stages. This is what it starts to look like after a while. The bulk of runners passes Chardonney after about 48 hours.

Donnas



The time limit to reach Donnas is 62 hours. To have a reasonable chance you should be there in less than 58 hours.

Looks the same as Chardonney. The bulk of runners arrives in Donnas after 52 hours of running.

Predictions

Some plots to help you predict how long it will take to get to the next aid station with timing. The times depend on the amount of darkness and are highly variable if people sleep along the way.


I am sure that you can deduce a reasonable estimate from that.

Time in Donnas

To finish the discussion of leg 3, some more records. This time of the people that stayed in Donnas for the longest time and still finished.

Scaranari Andrea 14:43 (2013)
Hamelinck Wouter 10:40 (2010)
Van Wetter Renaud 9:43 (2010)
Grange Guiseppe 9:40 (2010)

We’re the best. Very impressive is Giuseppe Grange, who still ran to a 12th place.

And to finish a plot to predict how long a runner will stay in the base vita depending on the time he arrived.

We see again that people sleep a longer time at night.

Posted in Lopen, Ultra | Leave a comment

Tor des Géants: leg 2

The second base vita of the Tor is in Cogne. Runners have covered there 56 km with 4141 D+ since the previous base vita. We have intermediate times in Rhemes and Eaux Rousses.
I will follow the same structure as I did for leg 1. In order to avoid writing the same things over and over again, I will be a bit shorter in the explanations.

Fastest Times

Fastest times in Rhemes:

Karrera Iker 9:18 (2013)
1550 Colle Franco 9:33 (2013)
883 Millet Gregoire 9:59 (2012)

Just a while ago, Lionel Trivel passed in 9:48. This gives him the third time in the history of the race and he is about half an hour behind what Iker Karrera ran last year. But he is ahead of what Oscar Perez Lopez ran towards a close finish with Iker.

Fastest times in Eaux Rousses:

Karrera Iker 12:06 (2013)
Colle Franco 12:16 (2013)
Millet Gregoire 12:45 (2012)

Fastest times in Cogne:

Karrera Iker 16:42 (2013)
Colle Franco 16:42 (2013)
Millet Gregoire 17:22 (2012)

Fastest times between Valgrisanche and Cogne:

Karrera Iker 9:47 (2013)
Colle Franco 9:49 (2013)
Millet Gregoire 9:59 (2012)

This far it are the same names over and over again.

Fastest times between Valgrisanche and Rhemes:

Karrera Iker 2:23 (2013)
Calvo Redondo Salvador 2:30 (2010)
Calmbach Uli 2:31 (2010)

Rather surprising to see here new names and all the way back from 2010. Lionel Trivel ran this today in 2:27, which will put him on the second place.

Fastest times between Rhemes and Eaux Rousses:

Colle Franco 2:43 (2013)
Millet Gregoire 2:46 (2012)
Karrera Iker 2:48 (2013)

Fastest times between Eaux Rousses and Cogne:

[Lo Conte Antonio 3:08 (2011)]
Colle Franco 4:26 (2013)
Karrera Iker 4:36 (2013)
Millet Gregoire 4:37 (2012)

That first value looks suspicious. Especially since the runner dropped in Cogne. It probably is the time he dropped, rather then the time he entered Cogne running.
In the whole list, the most remarkable to me is that they only contain runners that eventually finished the race. The ones that still run quickly appear to know what they are doing, while those that took of too fast already faded away.

Rhemes


Still a very large spread.

You should pass Rhemes in less than 24 hours. If you don’t manage that, your chances of finishing are very slim.

I keep being surprised by how different those shapes look.

Eaux Rousses


If you are not in Eaux Rousses after 26 hours, you are in for a battle with the cutoffs.

There is a cutoff after 33.5 hours. To have a realistic chance you need to pass in less than 30 hours.

That changes quite a bit from the picture in Rhemes. I still have no explanation for that.

Cogne



There is a time limit in Cogne after 42 hours. Interesting is the bunch of runners coming in after less than 40 hours and pushing on to the finish. I think that are people coming in before darkness that manage to get some good rest and hit the trails again in the morning.

Strange how the main bunch was around 30 hours into the race in 2010, but rather 34 hours in subsequent editions.

Predictions

Some plots to help you predict how long it will take to get to the next aid station with timing.

It is funny how people that leave after 15 to 18 hours all run more or less the same time. It has of course to do with the period of darkness. Those that leave after 18 hours have more daylight in this part and are probably better rested.


I am sure that you can deduce a reasonable estimate from that.

Time in Cogne

To finish the discussion of leg 2, some more records. This time of the people that stayed in Cogne for the longest time and still finished.

Maffucci Aldo 9:46 (2010)
Colle Massimo 9:36 (2010)
Piccardo Lorenzo 9:32 (2010)

And to finish a plot to predict how long a runner will stay in the base vita depending on the time he arrived.

No surprise here. People arriving in the beginning of the night tend to stay for a long time. while people that are fighting the time limit rush back out.

Posted in Lopen, Ultra | Leave a comment

Tor des Géants: leg 1

The first base vita of the Tor is in Valgrisanche. Runners have covered there 49 km with 3996 D+. And we have intermediate times in La Thuile.
Let’s see what we can learn from this first stage. What are the fastest times this far?
In La Thuile those are (runners between [] did not finish the race)

Colle Franco 2:12 (2013)
[Le Saux Christophe 2:12 (2013)]
Le Saux Christophe 2:13 (2012)
Voeffray Julien 2:14 (2013)
Le Saux Christophe 2:15 (2011)
[Calvo Redo Salvador 2:15 (2011)]
[Brunod Dennis 2:15 (2011)]
[Gross Ulrich 2:15 (2011)]
Perez Oscar 2:15 (2012)
Rosell Fa Carles 2:15 (2012)
[Gabioud Jules Henri 2:15 (2012)]
Karrera Iker 2:15 (2013)
Gazzola Marco 2:15 (2013)

Some conclusions: Christophe likes getting out fast. And those guys either break down or hammer on to finish among the top spots. A few hours ago the first runner (Franco Colle) passed in 2:12. Very fast, but he has done it also last year and it brought him a third place. All others were well behind this pace.

Same thing for Valgrisanche:

Karrera Iker 6:49 (2013)
Colle Franco 6:52 (2013)
Bohard Patrick 7:15 (2013)
[Calvo Redo Salvado 7:17 (2011)]
Perez Oscar 7:21 (2012)
Le Saux Christophe 7:21 (2012)
Voeffray Julien 7:21 (2013)

Lionel Trivel passed just in first postion after 7:20, so it looks like we are heading for a slower edition.

The fastest times run between La Thuile and Valgrisenche are

Karrera Iker 4:34 (2013)
1550 Colle Franco 4:40 (2013)
1552 Bohard Patrick 4:58 (2013)

Lionel Trivel just ran five hours flat today, which is the fourth time in the history of the race.

La Thuile

We are of course not all running among the first. So, let’s take a look what happens with the intermediate times further on. Can we predict the finish time from those intermediate times? This is the relation between the intermediate time in La Thuile and the finish time?

Not very much. Hard to predict anything from this. What I can say is that if you pass La Thuile after more than 3 hours, you will finish in more than 100 hours and if you pass La Thuile after more than 4 hours, you are looking at a time of 140 hours or more. But that assumes that you finish, of course. When do the finishers pass in La Thuile and when can we see the quitters?

Quitters a bit everywhere, but if you are passing after more than 4.5 hours you are in bad company. And if you are passing after more than five hours, you are pretty much toast.
Finally, did the times in La Thuile change over the years? I’ll give you another violin plot for that.

i am not sure what I should conclude from this, but is interesting to see how the distribution changes over time. It looks like more runners go out really fast and the tail of slow runners got heavier. The bulk appears to shift a little towards slower times, but I am not sure how significant that is.

Valgrisanche

The same plots as above, but this time for Valgrisanche.

Still hard to predict finish times, but we start to see a band that gives us a raw idea when you will finish. If you do finish.

Valgrisanche has a time limit after 19 hours of running. The plot shows clearly that you have no fighting chance if you pass that late. You should get to Valgrisanche in less than 14 hours to be in good company. This means getting there before midnight.

This looks rather similar to what we saw in La Thuile.

Predictions

Finishing times are hard to predict from the times in the first leg, but if you are following the race you might already be happy with a prediction of the next timing. Let’s see if we can do that. This is a plot of the time between La Thuile and Valgrisanche in function of the time in La Thuile.

I am sure that you can deduce a reasonable estimate from that.

Time in Valgrisanche

To finish the discussion of leg 1, some more records. This time of the people that stayed in Valgrisanche for the longest time and still finished.

Jeannin Walter 9:51 (2010)
Yoshimoto Makoto 9:35 (2011)
Loubet Serge 8:37 (2010)

Very impressive is the performance of Walter Jeannin: he went on to finish 19th.

Posted in Lopen, Ultra | Leave a comment

Tor des Géants: some statistics

Every year since 2010, we can follow one of the nicest races to run and also to follow from behind the pc screen: the Tor des Géants. In short, it is a loop around the Valle d’Aosta of 330 kilometers and 24000 meter of vertical gain (and loss).

The fifth edition started a few hours ago. That means we have four editions behind us. And that implies we have some data that we can play with. We can make all kinds of predictions, analyses and records to beat. Let’s see.

The entire race

Most obvious are the fastest times. Well, this is the top 5 this far:

Karrera Iker 70:04 (2013)
Perez Oscar 70:29 (2013)
Colle Franco 72:05 (2013)
Perez Oscar 75:56 (2012)
Trivel Lionel 77:02 (2013)

That is a long time, indeed. The slow runners should get to the finish line in less than 150 hours. Most runners will sleep during the race. There are six basi vita and a lot of smaller aid stations. The time getting in and out of the basi vita is tracked as well. So we can see who spent the least time in those basi vita.

Le Saux Christophe 2:01 (2011)
Millet Guillaume 2:06 (2010)
Colle Franco 2:11 (2012)
Karrera Iker 2:11 (2013)
Voeffray Julien 2:25 (2013)

This is limited to people that acutally finished the race.
We can do the same for people that spent the most time in the basi vita, while still finishing the race.

Hamelinck Wouter 53:07 (2010)
Pretti Giovanni 37:17 (2010)
Simonato Andrea 37:13 (2010)
Silipo Mario 36:50 (2010)
Tarrat Alc Juan 35:35 (2012)

Remarkable. The big sleepers all ran in 2010. And yes, that is a big outlier. But no, it is no mistake. I happen to know the guy and know the story behind it. Well, I am that guy in fact. I think that I will award “The Yeti Trophy” to the finisher that spends the most time in the basi vita. This far the winners of The Yeti Trophy are

2010 Hamelinck Wouter 53:07
2011 Pretti Giovanni 37:17
2012 Tarrat Alc Juan 35:35
2013 Yoshimoto Makoto 34:54

So, if we know who spent the longest and shortest time inside the basi vita, can we also see who spent the shortest time outside them? Sure:

Perez Oscar 67:09 (2013)
Colle Franco 67:15 (2013)
Karrera Iker 67:53 (2013)
Perez Oscar 68:38 (2012)
Trivel Lionel 71:55 (2013)

I am 7th in this ranking. I blame Renaud for slowing me down.
And the longest time on the course:

Tristant Goulwenn 144:06 (2011)
Verardi Frederic 138:50 (2011)
Collinson Mark 137:26 (2013)
Slagel Craig 136:46 (2010)
Barocco Ennio 136:40 (2013)
Demoulin Anne 136:37 (2011)
Savoia Gianni 136:37 (2011)
Andries Yves 136:31 (2011)
Redon Cedric 136:31 (2013)
Dawirs Michel 135:36 (2010)

Take into account that those people probably just have been sleeping a long time outside the basi vita. And I gave a few more than five, because I know some of the people just outside the top 5.

It is no surprise that the fast finishers spend little time in the basi vita and that the long sleepers tend to finish somewhere in the back.
A scatterplot shows this nicely.

Finally, I would like to take a look how those times are distributed. I made some violin plots for that. Maybe not the most intuitive plots but they show nicely what happens. This is what the distribution of finishing times looks like.

We see that people like to finish around 130 hours and around 145 hours into the race. They avoid to finish 135-140 hours into the race. In fact what we see is that people don’t like finishing at night. Over time we see that the fraction of finishers on day 6 has increased. This is probably not very surprising. What it means is that the increased number of participants (is has approximately doubled since the first edition in 2010) is mainly added in the back of the pack. That is something you see in any running distance. For instance the increasing popularity of marathons has given rise to a huge mass of people finishing in 4-5 hours, while among the front runners, the level hardly changed. We see the same thing happening at the Tor.

And this is what the distribution of sleeping times looks like.

Most people stay a bit less than 20 hours in the basi vita. Like the ranking of long sleepers indicated, the time in the basi vita decreased since 2010. The distribution of 2013 looks interesting. It looks like the people that would normally stay in the basi vita for about 10 hours have been trying to push their time inside further down. I assume that this are competitive runners that have learned from previous editions that sleeping as little as possible is the winning strategy at the Tor. But this is a bit of guessing from my part. Anyone has a better theory?

Some technical remarks

I did my best to create a so correct dataset as possible, but I am definitely not an official authority for record keeping. Just make a comment if you would catch an error.
For the records of leg 1, I only consider finishers. If a quitter has been better I put that between brackets. The people that were stopped in Saint-Rhemy due to bad weather are considered as finishers, but they are not included when finish times are considered for obvious reasons.
Sometimes an intermediate time is not available due to a glitch of some kind. That messes up some of the calculations. I only included the runners for which all the necessary data points for the calculation at hand are available.
Because the 2014 race is underway as I write this, only 2010-2013 are considered.
Times are every time expressed in hours since the start.

Posted in Lopen, Ultra | Leave a comment